Unrest Brews in Jordan

.: July 5, 2012

In this article, published in June in the indian magazine "Diplomatist", Atul Razdan analyses the recent demonstrations in Jordan.

The demonstrations were against the ever increasing unemployment – especially among the youth – rising prices, the growing gap between the rich and the poor, the prevailing autocracy in Jordan, and the failure of Jordan’s monarch, King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein, to help solve the country’s economic woes

Arab Awakening

The unrest in Jordan began on January 14, 2011, drawing its inspiration undoubtedly from the prevailing regional unrest, especially in Tunisia. Protests started, inter alia, in the towns of Amman, Salt, Irbid, Ma’an and in Al Karak. As was prevalent in the other countries of the Middle East, the demonstrations began after Friday prayers, led by political (leftist) parties and trade unionists. The demonstrations were against the ever increasing unemployment – especially among the youth – rising prices, the growing gap between the rich and the poor, the prevailing autocracy in Jordan, and the failure of Jordan’s monarch, King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein, to help solve the country’s economic woes. Immediately after the protests in January, the King did announce that he would start a multimillion aid programme to calm the restive tribes of the country. In order to stave off an escalation in protests, the King promised to invest $125 million in the public sector. But Jordan is already $20 billion in debt, and if King Abdullah has to introduce reforms promised to the East Bankers, he will have to increase the recently slashed taxes.

Protests and Economic Reforms

There was, however, one shortcoming – the country did not have the resources to implement the welfare programmes promised by the monarch. In 2010, for example, 82 percent of the government’s budget went into military pensions and civil service salaries, giving very little leeway for the government to increase such payments. This is, however, one of the main demands of the tribesmen.

Economic reform introduced in Jordan, to bring it in line with global markets, has tended to benefit the Palestinians living in Jordan. The traditional Jordanian population of the country, otherwise called the East Bankers (of the River Jordan), which forms the core of the King’s support base, rely on the Government’s payroll. The country’s main constituencies are the tribes, or the so called East Bankers and the Palestinians, who form the overwhelming majority of the country’s six million citizens. The East Bankers dominate the civil services and the security forces, while the Palestinians practically control the private sector. Another demand of the East Bankers is that the Palestinian population should not be allowed to grow.

The monarch did deliver on one of the demands of the protestors – he fired the incumbent government of Prime Minister Samir Rifai on February 1, 2011 and asked former Army General Marouf al Bhakit to form a new cabinet. The new Prime Minister was charged to take “quick, practical and concrete steps to launch a genuine political reform process”. The monarch further wanted the reforms to put Jordan on the path to democracy and to provide the country’s nationals with “the dignified life they deserve”.

A Rise in Demands and Demonstrations

Protests in Jordan, however continued unabated, and by March, university students and unemployed young graduates were demanding the removal of the new Prime Minister for being insufficiently reformist. The demonstrators called for the dissolution of Parliament, which was seen as too ‘docile’, the dismantling of the intelligence department, and giving greater power to people, including a new, more proportional election law. Demonstrators also wanted changes in the constitution, which currently gives the King absolute power. The protesters demanded the Prime Minister be elected by the people and not appointed by the King.

Demonstrations subsequently increased in Jordan, with occasional clashes taking place between government supporters and pro-reform activists in which there were multiple casualties. The demonstrations, however, did not get out of hand and the tribes of Jordan, largely supporting the King, remained mainly loyal to the monarchy. The unfavourable economic forces prevailing in the region did, however, have an effect on the people. There now are murmurs against King Abdullah and his incompetence, and allegations that the security apparatus in Jordan is much too pervasive and in control of things. Analysts are of the view that the institution of monarchy is now open to question, something that was impossible at the time of King Abdullah’s father, King Hussein, who was revered by the people.

Royal Couple under Scrutiny

King Abdullah is being closely watched by his people to see whether he can deliver on the reforms he promised when he appointed the new government. While the tribes which have traditionally supported the monarchy, like the Zubaidis, swear absolute loyalty to the Hashemite (the ruling family), there is no denying the fact that the king and his queen have recently come under criticism, something that was completely taboo earlier. The royal couple have been the objects of Jordanian ire recently because of their extravagant lifestyles on the one hand and their tolerance of corruption in the system on the other. Queen Rania, who is of Palestinian origin, is sophisticated, beautiful and is widely admired abroad. Within the country, she has been a subject of particular criticism, being accused of controlling court appointments and funnelling business and money to her own family. She is also regarded as being insensitive to her subjects.

Jordan under King Hussein

King Hussein of Jordan, the present monarch’s father, ruled the kingdom since 1952, when his father King Talal, being medically unfit to reign, abdicated the throne. An alumnus of Harrow, the king was also a graduate of the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst. His rule extended through the period of the Cold War and more importantly, through the four decades of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The Kingdom has a majority Sunni Muslim population and the Hashemite dynasty claims its descent from the family of Prophet Mohammad, giving the monarchy an important element of prestige. Jordan is a conservative monarchy. As a result of the changed political scenario following the Gulf War, Islamic Fundamentalism made some headway in the Hashemite Kingdom. This was partly due to the worsening regional economic situation and the consequent reduced economic assistance received by Jordan from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, the latter being an important economic partner for Jordan.

The King, who survived an assassination attempt in July 1951 in Jerusalem, was notable for secret contacts with the United States and Israel, which was not often appreciated by his Arab neighbours. Regional politics forced Hussein to side with the Arab States at the height of the Arab-Israeli animosity and even take part in the Six Day War of 1967 (when Jordan lost control of the West Bank and East Jerusalem), where the Jordanian armed forces were shattered. In addition, the country was, for a second time since 1948, deluged by Palestinian refugees, fleeing from the Israeli assault. As had happened earlier, Israel once again did not permit the refugees to return to the territories it had captured in the war. Consequently, the Palestinians, who had fled to Jordan in the two wars, outnumbered the indigenous population. Most of these refugees were granted citizenship by Hussein. By their sheer numbers, the Palestinian factions in Jordan were able to exercise considerable authority in governing some areas of the country, giving credence to the feeling that they were a state within a state and were undermining the authority of Hussein in his own country.

The situation had deteriorated to the extent that Al Fatah, the Palestinians representative organisation, began nurturing ambitions of power sharing with the Jordanian government. The influx of refugees into Jordan had led to guerrilla groups associated with the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), especially Yasser Arafat’s Al Fatah faction, to establish a strong position in Jordan. The presence of the fidayeen in Jordan was a threat to the sovereignty of the country and a regional destabilising factor, in as much as the Palestinian fidayeen attacks on Israel drew immediate Israeli retaliation.

This was a destabilising factor for King Hussein. The activities of the multiple Palestinian groups grew in Jordan, to the extent that hijacking of an international aircraft also took place (Zarqa, Jordan, September 1970). Such activities challenged the position of Hussein in the country and forced him to declare martial law on September 16, 1970 and begin a military campaign against the PLO with a view to oust them from the West Bank. The conflict between the Palestinian factions and the Jordanians caused regional tensions, causing Syria to even step briefly in military support of the Palestinians. Tensions ran high, and for some time, it appeared that the US, the USSR and Israel would be drawn into the conflict.

However, better sense prevailed, and despite regional efforts to end the conflict, the war between the Palestinians and Jordan continued till June 1971, when the PLO were finally forced out of Jordan and relocated to Southern Lebanon. The largest loss in this conflict was to the PLO, since its fighters were pushed out of Jordan, losing the main base of their operations. As a result of this ‘Black September’, as it became known among the Arab countries, Arafat’s Al Fatah faction formed the Black September Organisation (BSO), a notorious terrorist group set up especially for taking revenge against King Hussein. The BSO did succeed in assassinating Jordanian Prime Minister Wasfi Tell, who played an important part in the expulsion of Palestinians from Jordan in November 1971. The BSO (now extinct), was also responsible for the Munich Massacre of September 1972. The BSO also carried out a number of other terrorist strikes in Europe, which helped open the eyes of the West to the refugee problem.

This issue and the reaction of Jordan to the problem of Palestinian refugees served to isolate Jordan in the Arab world and identify it as a friend of Israel and the US. In the subsequent 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Jordan wary of Sadat’s promise to the Palestinians did not join the war on the Arab side. Hussein, who realised the futility of war with Israel, reached a bilateral peace agreement with Israel on October 26, 1994. It was the second Arab country to do so, after the Egypt-Israel Peace Accord of March 26, 1979.

Role of the Muslim Brotherhood

The conflict with the Palestinians is, however, not the only thorn in the flesh of the Jordanian Royal Family. Of late, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), present in strength in Jordan, and represented by its front, the Islamic Action Front Party (IAF), is known to have close contacts with the Hamas, present in strength in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. It is, however, significant to note that the IAF played a leading role in the demonstrations which took place in Jordan recently and that MB cadres persisted in their demonstrations even when the first flush of enthusiasm for public protest had died down. According to some reports in the media, the leader of the political bureau of the Muslim Brotherhood’s IAF, Zaki Bani Rsheid, has said that the goal (of the IAF) was to convert King Abdullah into a figure like “the Queen of England or the President of Israel – as an umbrella of stability”.

The statement of Rsheid shows clearly that the MB, despite its restraint, is hankering to play a role in the political life of Jordan. The dissatisfaction, apparent in the recent Jordan demonstrations, is a new factor for the country. At present, people are merely displaying their discontent at prevailing socio economic conditions and are asking the Hashemites to wake up and take action in a changed world. The saving grace for the Kingdom is the fact that the opposition is deeply divided and does not have a clear agenda for action or for the form of government to follow, if the present government is overthrown.

More Trouble in Future

The potential for trouble in Jordan exists, especially with a disgruntled PLO lurking in the background. Religious fervour is present in Jordan with a plethora of small, religiously-minded parties, namely the Dar al Quran, Justice Grouping, The Democratic Islamic Arab Movement, the Inqatha (Salvation) Movement, Al Haq Party, IslamicTahrir Party and the Islamic Action Front, apart from the IAF. So far such organisations have shown the inclination to accommodate the desires of the Kingdom, even while they are critical of the Kingdom’s approach to Israel. These groups serve as an umbrella for Jordan’s Islamic Fundamentalist factions.

There are, however, some militant factions with strong Palestinian connections, which would present problems for the monarchy if they decide to get together in future. These are the Islamic Jihad Movement – an armed Palestinian group, which was responsible for attacks on tourists to Jordan (1990); the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Palestine – a militant Palestinian group which came into prominence in 1990 for the killing of some Israeli nationals; the Islamic Liberation Front – an underground organisation allegedly involved in an explosion in Texas (1990) and for plotting an unsuccessful assassination attempt on the former Monarch; and, the Shaban al Nafir al Islami (Vanguard of Islamic Youth) – the group that is alleged to be linked to the Islamic Jihad and to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (General Command), (PFLP-GC), led by Ahmed Jibril and the Army of Mohammad al Mujahedeen, alleged to be involved in terror attacks and assassinations.

Atul RAZDAN © Diplomatist (India)

Atul Razdan is a retired officer of the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency and a former journalist with Hindustan Times.