Three Scenarios for Turkey’s Elections (2/2)

.: June 6, 2018

The upcoming presidential and legislative elections in Turkey will take place on June 24, 2018. These are very important for Turkey but also for the entire world. Thus, Marc Pierini presents the three possible outcomes of these election. In this second and last part Marc Pierini imagines two scenarios: one in which Erdogan loses and another in which he wins, but he does not have a majority in parliament.

AN OPPOSITION VICTORY

In this scenario, an opposition candidate is elected (possibly Muharrem İnce or Meral Akşener), and the Nation’s Alliance—composed of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Good Party (İyi Parti), Felicity Party (SP), and Democratic Party (DP)—enjoys a strong parliamentary majority.

If this comes to pass, a massive political change is likely to occur on several fronts according to campaign statements. The new leadership will immediately send strong signals on two policy fronts. They first will seek to eliminate the contradictions in the interest rate policy, but at the same time, safeguard the rational elements of the AKP’s economic policy. The second will seek to promote a return to normalization and tolerance. The new government’s policies will likely aim to address the entire Turkish society after years of polarization and divisive narratives. The policies could include lifting the state of emergency and canceling decrees issued under the emergency rule.

In the medium term, government leaders will probably launch an arduous process for rehabilitating the constitutional order and democracy. Beyond the cancellation of emergency decrees, they will likely seek to roll back a large number of laws and decisions (for example, the newly passed electoral law or the judiciary reforms). Not every element of the country’s rule-of-law architecture would return at once, and a transitional justice mechanism would probably be needed, especially to address confiscated wealth and public sector job dismissals. Thus, domestic reconciliation, particularly with Turkey’s Kurds, will be a tall order. In the long term, a return to a parliamentary system, if eventually sought, will essentially depend on the size of the parliamentary majority supporting the endeavor.

Regarding the economy, the new leadership will most likely seek to restore credibility. This may involve providing a recourse to some of Turkey’s economic czars during the AKP tenure—a gesture that would signal the absence of a “revenge mentality.” It may also necessarily involve straightening out the government’s discretionary economic policies— including public procurement, a major tool used in the past fifteen years to fund the ruling AKP. In addition, pending a thorough evaluation, the government might consider abandoning or postponing some of the most contentious and politically motivated infrastructure projects, such as Kanal Istanbul or various nuclear plants, as well as rolling back some of the more excessive policies related to the construction and environmental sectors.

Regarding foreign policy, restoring Turkey’s international credibility will be an urgent priority for the new president and government. This will call for a delicate adjustment of the country’s positions along more coherent lines and will make for an extremely crowded agenda for the new foreign minister. The policy review process will need to cover an extensive range of issues, especially those that the Western world views as incompatible with prior commitments or riddled with inconsistencies.

The initial focus will likely be on the country’s Middle East policy; its relations with Russia (including the purchase of S-400 missiles) and Iran; its participation in the coalition against the self-proclaimed Islamic State; and its arrangements with NATO and the United States on defense matters (such as Turkey’s full participation in NATO’s operational structures and Missile Defense Shield, use of the İncirlik Air Base where the United States has deployed major assets, and the deployment of F-35 aircraft).

Western countries will be particularly interested in the new government’s attitude toward a future political settlement in Syria, especially related to the role of the Geneva peace process versus the so-called Astana process, the status of minorities in Syria (including the Syrian Kurds), security guarantees and counterterrorism cooperation on the Syrian-Turkish border, and the future of Turkish military operations in northern Syria.

Washington will seek clarification on a number of bilateral issues: the situation of Andrew Brunson, an American pastor being held as a state hostage in Turkey; the judicial proceedings against two U.S. consular employees; the extradition request against Fethullah Gülen; and the U.S. Treasury financial penalties against Turkish banks (if in force).

None of the above will prove easy to resolve. Establishment of a new coalition may not change Turkey’s calculus on some issues—especially those surrounding the İncirlik base, Gülen’s extradition request, and the Syrian Kurds. The Nation’s Alliance will have to coalesce around more than its anti-Erdoğan platform and demonstrate that it can govern on an entire range of domestic and international issues.

Vis-à-vis the EU, the new leadership will conceivably state its desire to rekindle Turkey’s accession process unless its nationalist segment raises difficulties. In all probability, the new government will put an end to the recurrent verbal attacks against the EU. If this happens, the ongoing acrimony between Turkey and EU member countries, particularly Austria, France, Germany, and the Netherlands, should subside drastically—at least in tone, if not on substance. The EU should be prepared to react in a rapid and realistic manner.

The range of issues where progress could occur will not be much larger than it currently is with the AKP government, but the spirit in which dialogue will resume could be noticeably different: EU-Turkey meetings could move from photo opportunities aimed at showing apparent normalcy to tangible synergies on issues of common interest—such as selected foreign policy matters, visas, refugees, and trade relations. Assuming both sides desire normalization—an equal challenge for both the EU and Turkey—they should consider issuing, within a short time frame, a declaration stating their mutual intention to resume relations in a positive atmosphere and to hold a summit aimed at establishing a realistic road map.

Further afield, a new coalition in Turkey could—conceivably and within limits—make inroads with the new government in power in Armenia. Efforts toward normalization could include opening the borders and developing infrastructure in northeastern Turkey that are linked to Armenia’s exports and regional infrastructure projects.

A PRESIDENT AND A PARLIAMENT FROM OPPOSING SIDES

In this scenario, the president and the parliamentary majority come from opposing sides. Either Erdoğan is reelected but has to govern with a parliament dominated by a strong opposition to his constitutional reform (Scenario A); or, conversely, an opposition candidate is elected but has to govern with an AKP-MHP-dominated parliament (Scenario B).

If Scenario A occurs, illustrating Erdoğan’s popularity but also a desire to limit his absolute power, Turkey will witness a complete clash of political cultures: the president will maintain a majoritarian concept of democracy and a political survival strategy, while the parliament will strive to uphold a parliamentary democracy.

Erdoğan has made his views about such a scenario clear: there is no room for a hung parliament or for a coalition opposed to his presidency. As he stated in a Bloomberg interview, the logic of the presidential system is to have a strong parliamentary majority supporting the president. He went on to say that the situation of June 7, 2015—when legislative elections made a coalition government necessary—constituted a “blockage” that will not be repeated.

Erdoğan’s plan in such a case is to call for snap, repeat legislative elections, as was done in 2015: “We would not allow a development which will not let the system work. In any case, there were some people who clogged the system after June 7. As the head of the republic I opened the blockage and immediately November [2015] elections were called. In November, our people said this can’t happen and brought the AK party back to power again on its own. The system started functioning again.”

This essentially means that, under Erdoğan, a liberal democracy is not in the cards. His notion of governance is that there is only one source of power, which is the head of state. He sees the coexistence of a directly elected president and an elected parliamentary majority from the opposite side—essentially the very notion of a coalition—as a hindrance, not as a balanced check of the voters’ will, as it would be viewed in a liberal democracy.

His ominous warning of a blockage could resonate with voters, especially given the trust Erdoğan enjoys among his followers and the conspiracy mindset that prevails in many circles. But it carries risk. Under the new constitution, the president cannot dissolve parliament and call a new election without undoing his own vote to power, since both ballots—and their results—are tied. In other words, in the event of a parliamentary dissolution, both votes would need to be held again, therefore putting the presidential mandate in jeopardy. Of course, Erdoğan could challenge this reading of the constitution after reelection.

If the June 24 presidential vote leads to a runoff on July 8, and the legislative ballot held earlier produces a Nation’s Alliance majority (possibly joined by the Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, or HDP), voters may seek to elect a new president on July 8 to spare the country a political crisis. However, this outcome would depend on how effectively the Nation’s Alliance and HDP rally behind the opposition presidential candidate and on a coherent government platform. Further, like in the summer of 2015, a crisis on the security or military front could serve the incumbent president and coalition well.

If Scenario B occurs, a secularist opposition president will be confronted with an Islamist-nationalist majority in parliament, leading to a confused situation, especially if a split occurs within the parliamentary majority on which course to follow—for example, between the AKP and MHP. The key issue in this case will be whether to implement the constitutional reform, which will legally be on the books but will run against the beliefs of most in the coalition. Will the president opt for a pragmatic solution and keep the reformed constitution but implement in practice a French-style rather than a U.S.-style presidency? That is, will the president create a system where he has a prominent role in foreign policy and security matters and the prime minister has a management role in economic and internal matters? Or will the president instead opt for a more radical solution and initiate a reversal of the constitutional reform? Or will this scenario lead to a political impasse, with the president calling for fresh parliamentary elections?

On the economic front, both scenarios A and B would usher in a period of increased uncertainty for the Turkish economy. Foreign governments and economic actors would probably adopt a wait-and-see attitude, pending indications of the economy’s direction. And the resulting prolonged uncertainty will inevitably damage the country’s fragile economy.

CONCLUSION

Overall, from a foreign observer’s standpoint, Turkey’s forthcoming elections may be biased in favor of the ruling parties. But for the first time in a long while, opposition parties have a shot at putting forward a radically different option for voters. In others words, there is more competition than initially expected. Conversely, this means that there is a higher risk of election fraud.

Despite the electoral campaign’s obvious unfairness, the fate of the country is squarely in the hands of voters and this is a healthy situation. While Western powers are watching, the election observation team from the OSCE and the Council of Europe will be essential to assess the regularity of the ballot. Whatever the outcome, Western governments, and especially EU governments and institutions, will have to quickly evaluate the results and chart a course of action.

Marc PIERINI © Carnegie Europe (Belgium)

Marc Pierini is a visiting researcher at Carnegie Europe, a career diplomat with the European Union until May 2012. He has been ambassador to Turkey, Tunisia, Libya, Syria and Morocco.