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Three Scenarios for Turkey’s Elections (1/2)

.: June 5, 2018

The upcoming presidential and legislative elections in Turkey will take place on June 24 2018. These are very important for Turkey but also for the entire world. Thus, Marc Pierini presents the three possible outcomes of these elections. In this first part he contextualizes those elections and evokes the first possibility, which is most likely to happen, the re-election of Erdogan.

Whatever the outcome of Turkey’s June 24 elections, a new presidential system will come into effect and the foreign policy, economic, and social ramifications will be significant.

CONTEXT

On June 24, Turkey’s citizens will vote in two crucial elections: one to elect their president, with a runoff held on July 8 if needed, and one to elect members of the Turkish parliament in a single round of voting. Both elections will be held sixteen months earlier than the normal voting schedule and under a prolonged state of emergency. Many view this as a preemptive move by the country’s incumbent, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to win ballots ahead of difficult times for the Turkish economy.

As was the case in Turkey’s 2017 constitutional referendum, the campaigns seem to be substantially biased in favor of the current leadership in terms of airtime, billboards, and public meetings. Some 144,000 Kurdish voters will be unable to vote in their customary ballot stations; in one southeastern province, election-related demonstrations and events have been banned; and the Kurdish presidential candidate, Selahattin Demirtaș, is “campaigning” from his cell in the Edirne prison (he has been allowed twenty minutes on public television, whereas the incumbent president has had sixty-eight hours in the last two weeks). The forthcoming elections are therefore gearing up to be an all-out battle between Erdoğan, who aims to retain his grip on power, and the opposition, who hope to defeat him after fifteen years of political dominance. The result will have major consequences for Turkey’s role on the international scene and for its relationships with the United States and Europe in particular.

Three election scenarios are theoretically possible: Erdoğan wins, supported by the Islamist-nationalist coalition called the People’s Alliance; one of Erdoğan’s opponents wins, supported by a multifaceted opposition coalition called the Nation’s Alliance; or there is a mixed result, where the president and parliament belong to opposite camps.

Two peculiar circumstances could impact the votes. First, due to the constitutional reform approved in the 2017 referendum, a new one-man-rule system that gives the president expanded executive powers will come into effect immediately, whatever the results of both elections. Second, in the event that no presidential candidate receives 50 percent-plus-one vote in the first round, the runoff will take place two weeks after the parliamentary election, which means the latter’s results could influence the votes in the runoff.

With these elections being an all-out fight, making predictions would be imprudent, especially from a foreign observer standpoint. Further, many external economic, security, and political factors could still influence the voting. Turkey’s recent currency crisis is a case in point. But it is useful to assess some of the foreign policy implications of each scenario.

AN ALL-AROUND ERDOĞAN VICTORY

In this scenario, Erdoğan is reelected and his People’s Alliance—composed of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and Great Unity Party (BBP)—enjoys a substantial majority in parliament. As a result, the new presidential regime, nurtured by Erdoğan since he was first elected in August 2014, comes into full effect; the country’s political regime conforms to Erdoğan’s majoritarian view, the president assumes sweeping powers, and the function of prime minister is eliminated. Consequently, Turkey is likely to be governed well outside the bounds of liberal democracy.

The judiciary, media, and civil society will remain under tight control, and the purge of the “enemies of the state” will likely continue. Although a relaxation of repressive policies could theoretically take place after the election, the destabilization caused by the July 2016 failed coup is liable to stay, therefore making the current purge a standard policy. This situation could result in permanent malaise and tensions among Turkish society, a significant exodus of the country’s intellectuals, and capital flight. Relations with Turkey’s Kurds, in particular, will probably remain tense due to the nationalist segment of the parliamentary coalition. And this will render a relaunching of the 2012 peace process initiated by then prime minister Erdoğan highly implausible.

Regarding the economy, the establishment of a strong executive presidential regime will inevitably have an even greater impact on national and foreign investment and interest rates. On May 14, 2018, Erdoğan explained his intention to take a more commanding role over economic policies. Calling interest rates “the mother and father of all evil,” he has long advocated for a low interest rate policy based on Islamic finance concepts and has notoriously been at odds with his successive vice–prime ministers for economic affairs and central bank governors. The currency crisis has amply illustrated that low interest rate theories are in no way compatible with Turkey’s economic position: the country is in need of short-term money and foreign direct investment and its economy is dependent on the EU in terms of trade, investment, and technology. For the moment, Erdoğan has backtracked (the central bank raised interest rates on May 28) and his deputy prime minister has launched a reassurance campaign. But in the longer term, markets and investors will not be reassured by the tighter grip of a president driven by such uncommon economic and monetary views.

In the foreign policy domain, Turkey’s approach will continue to reflect the president’s premise that the country is a global power and should deal with all its partners on an equal footing. In this scenario, Turkey’s relationship with Russia will probably remain strong, if only to counterbalance Ankara’s difficult relationships with Western countries. Moscow will likely continue to use Ankara against NATO and the EU. However, the current tensions between Ankara on one side and Moscow and Tehran on the other regarding Syria—particularly the future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad—will represent one of the most enduring and visible inconsistencies in Turkey’s foreign policy.

Turkey’s relationship with the West will stay problematic or even worsen, especially if Ankara continues to blame other countries for its own domestic political and economic problems, as in the case of the recent currency crisis.

Particular bones of contention with the United States will include the anticipated delivery of Russian S-400 missiles to Turkey. In response, the United States may postpone deliveries of the F-35 fighter aircraft or even levy sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The respective Turkish and U.S. military operations in northern Syria, as well as a Syrian political settlement, will be ongoing sore spots.

The May 2018 conviction of a Turkish banker accused of violating U.S. sanctions on Iran will also continue to have repercussions. Even the lenient sentencing of the Halkbank executive was immediately rejected by the Turkish government. And the revelations made during court proceedings are likely to reverberate and perpetuate anger and political embarrassment in Ankara, especially given the documented involvement of Turkish state and bank officials and the bribing of some Turkish ministers (no longer serving in the cabinet). Further, U.S. Treasury financial sanctions against one or several Turkish banks may still be possible because the sanction-evading scheme was—in the words of the U.S. prosecutor representing the federal government—“monumental in scope,” “momentous in timing,” and helped Iran, “the world’s biggest state sponsor of terrorism.” Given U.S. President Donald Trump’s firm policy on Iran and the cancellation of the nuclear deal, Washington is unlikely to show much leniency on this sanctions issue. Turkey’s relationship with Iran will continue to raise many questions.

Regarding the European Union, Erdoğan will likely seek to revamp relations to gain some post-election legitimacy and boost national prestige. Yet Erdoğan’s pro-EU proclamations will not impress European leaders, as the statements are often contradicted by his actual policies, which are increasingly diverging from EU governance standards. After Turkey’s new constitution is implemented, Ankara and Brussels will definitely be in different orbits. The European Parliament could take steps to formally stop accession negotiations, but even if it does not, the shift in several EU governments’ positions and the unanimity rule on enlargement matters will prevent any real progress on accession. In addition, resentment stemming from Turkey’s verbal abuse in 2017 and 2018 will linger on in several EU countries. Other elements of Turkey’s relationship with Europe—including policies on the Customs Union, visas, refugees, and counterterrorism—will have to be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

By contrast, bilateral relations could advance with a post-Brexit United Kingdom—for example, through ongoing talks surrounding joint projects in the defense field. Unlike the European Union, London has no major stipulations regarding Ankara’s rule-of-law, and both countries want to be viewed as global powers.

Marc PIERINI © Carnegie Europe (Belgium)

Marc Pierini is a visiting researcher at Carnegie Europe, a career diplomat with the European Union until May 2012. He has been ambassador to Turkey, Tunisia, Libya, Syria and Morocco.

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