Rise of new Saudi crown prince stirs serious concerns in Iran

.: July 11, 2017

In this article, the authors explained that while the elevation of Mohammed bin Salman was no surprise to many observers in Tehran, his de facto rule over Saudi Arabia is raising serious concerns in Iran.

The recent changes in Saudi leadership were not a surprise to Iran. In fact, last October, long before the appointment of Mohammed bin Salman as Saudi Arabia’s new crown prince, Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani told a gathering in Tehran explained that Mohammed bin Salman, the second crown prince, was in a hurry and wanted to set aside the first one [Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef], and might even kill his own father to replace him. The Iranian major general recalled a conversation that allegedly took place between Mohammed and a Syrian official in Russia sometime in 2016, quoting the Syrian official as saying that the Saudi royal asked about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, how he is, how his family is. Then he added that the only problem of Syrian regime was its relations with Iran and if the government was willing to end them all of the actual tensions would be over.

A serious risk of rising tensions

Mohammed’s view of Iran as the region’s main problem worries Tehran. The Saudi crown prince’s harsh words against the Islamic Republic and his open perceived threat in May to take the battle into Iran have prompted Iranian decision-makers to respond by adopting stronger positions against Riyadh. A second Iranian official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, said that Saudi Arabia is today in one of its worst phases. That maybe for the first time in decades, this kingdom is under threat of collapse from withi and are seriously facing a leadership crisis. He added that nations can’t be ruled by inexperienced adventurers, and this is the case with the new crown prince.

According to the Iranian official, Mohammed’s policies toward the Islamic Republic are seen as wholly hostile. The continuous threats against Iran by the prince and his foreign minister convey a message that Saudis might not want to be translated. Hitting on religious beliefs is imprudent. He added that Bin Salman’s comments about Imam Mahdi wasn’t a political stance and that he intimidated every believer — even those who oppose the Islamic Republic were insulted. The Iranian official was referring to a May 2 TV interview in which Mohammed answered a question on the possibility of dialogue with Iran. The National summarized the interview as follows where Prince Mohammed said it was impossible to talk with a power that was planning for the return of the Imam Mahdi. Shiites believe Imam Mahdi was a descendant of the Prophet Mohammed who went into hiding 1,000 years ago and will return to establish global Islamic rule before the end of the world.

Path of a historic conflict

The current tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not unprecedented. The two Persian Gulf nations almost clashed in June 1984 when Saudi jets shot down two Iranian F-4 fighters when they entered Saudi airspace. Earlier, in April and May that year, several Saudi and Kuwaiti oil tankers were hit, with Iran accused of striking some of them. These incidents took place during the 1980-88 war between Iran and Iraq, in which Saudi Arabia and several other Persian Gulf states sided with Saddam Hussein, and the Islamic Republic intensified its rhetoric against Riyadh. August 1987 saw perhaps the worst crisis between the two states: Iranian pilgrims on July 31 staged their annual protest against Israel and the United States during the hajj, with some 400 of them killed by Saudi riot police in Mecca. In response, angry Iranians stormed the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, in a scene that was repeated 28 years later over Riyadh’s execution of a dissident Shiite cleric.

When it comes to the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the past doesn’t seem to exist independently from the present. Because of this, the appointment of the new crown prince raises concerns in Tehran. Iran is worried because it views Mohammed, the de facto ruler of its arch rival, as lacking wisdom and as a person driven by illusions of superiority that might set the whole region on fire. While Mohammed’s close ties with the US administration aren’t a matter of concern in Tehran, reports indicating that the young prince is getting closer to Israel is what the Iranians take more into consideration. Israeli-Saudi cooperation would present, from Tehran’s viewpoint, a serious threat to both its national and regional security. In other words, the probability of an open confrontation, from the shores of the Mediterranean to the heart of the Persian Gulf, could increase. In this equation, the ongoing proxy wars in the region, with all their repercussions and casualties, would be reduced to a footnote in history; one side could ignite a wider war, but no one can possibly know when such a conflict may end.

Ali HASHEM © Al-Monitor (US)

Ali Hashem is a searcher and journalist with a focus on Iran. He is the former Tehran bureau chief for the Arab news network Al Mayadeen, and a former reporter for Al Jazeera and the BBC.