Count on Egypt to finish Hamas off

.: August 6, 2014

Rubinstein explains, in an analyse published by I24 News, the limits of the influence of Hamas in the Arab world and the role of Hamas against the terrorist group.

In recent days I was a guest on many Arabic language news channels (Rusiya Al-Yaum, Alhurra, Sky News Arabic, Al-Jazeera) and in all the interviews I said that Israel’s position is that its campaign in Gaza is against Hamas, which is defined as a terrorist organization by many countries around the world, including Egypt and the West. In almost all cases the interviewers stopped me and said: ’This is not what we see on the ground. According to the data coming from Gaza, Israel is conducting a war against the people of Gaza, and not against Hamas.’And indeed, with images of the dead and massive destruction in Gaza and the reality of hundreds of thousands of people who left neighborhoods that were turned into islands of ruins, there is almost no room to argue.

It is against this backdrop that the Palestinian public in the West Bank, Jordan and Israel expresses its solidarity with the people of Gaza — not necessarily with Hamas. The calls we see in the Arab and Palestinian media are: "Save Gaza," all the while ignoring Hamas. The slogans seen in parades and demonstrations in Nablus and Bethlehem speak of suffering and bleeding Gaza, which became a disaster zone, with little regard to the political mess created by the horrors of the war.

This is a natural reaction of a public that tends to express national unity during times of distress. In East Jerusalem, many flock to the al-Muqassad hospital on the Mount of Olives and the French Hospital in Sheikh Jarrah, where a few dozen severely wounded patients from Gaza were admitted. They bring them clothes, candy and cash. Palestinian leaders also visit them. Palestinian Authority websites have dozens of photos of Prime Minister Dr. Rami Hamdallah and delegations visiting the wounded Gazans in hospitals in Ramallah and Nablus.

In all likelihood Hamas’s popularity is on the rise among Palestinians, and perhaps the Arab street in general, though you wont see any public expression of it. Headlines in the Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds, for example, read "Gaza endures," and not Hamas holds on. The big question is which way Palestinian public opinion and politics will sway when the fighting ends. Will Hamas be strengthened and continue to control Gaza, or will people start pointing blaming fingers at it after the disaster? Will PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas regain control over Gaza and rebuild it?

In order to answer this, one needs to clarify some fundamental principles involved in the campaign in Gaza. The most important position is that of the Egyptian government, which will determine what will be in Gaza more than any other political factor, including Israel. ever since last year’s military coup in Cairo, Egypt considers Hamas a hostile terrorist organization and all means are permissible in fighting it. Based on the statements of Egyptian leaders and most of the media, it is clear that there is no intention to negotiate with Hamas. As far as Cairo is concerned, Hamas is not an external enemy as it is perceived by Israel, but an internal enemy, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood that threatens the government in Cairo and needs to be completely removed from the political arena.

You get the impression from the statements in Egypt, that if Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal was to arrive in Cairo, he would be seated in a cage in a courtroom right next to ousted president Mohamed Morsi. Abbas is the only one that the Egyptians recognize as a Palestinian representative in Gaza ceasefire talks. The biggest concession on their part is allowing delegates of various factions, including Hamas, to be seated beside him as junior representatives.

The Egyptian position was not determined in a vacuum. It has a broad history of what appears to be the decline of political Islam in the Middle East. Islamist movements were central to the upheavals of the "Arab spring" from Libya to the west, to the Principality of Bahrain in the east. The results of those uprisings have so far been a resounding failure, as reflected in the military coup in Cairo and the horrible bloody struggles of factions of Muslim fundamentalists in Iraq and Syria. Hamas as a political/religious movement is besieged and isolated. Apart from Qatar, almost all the Arab world stands against it, including a significant portion (perhaps even most) of the Palestinian public. One can therefore estimate that the Hamas regime in Gaza will not survive for long. Gradually, and with much assistance of the Egyptian government, it can be replaced by the Palestinian Authority that will gain broad Arab and international support to rebuild Gaza.

Danny RUBINSTEIN © I24 News (Israel)

Rubinstein lectures on Arab issues at Ben Gurion University and Hebrew University, and is a columnist on Palestinian economic issues at Calcalist.