Beyond Tradition and Modernity: Dilemmas of Transformation in Saudi Arabia (2/2)

.: May 15, 2018

Madawi Al-Rasheed presents in this analysis in two parts the current evolutions of Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salmane, MBS, seems to evoke great changes of modernist tendencies for the country. The author will seek to establish a more nuanced paradigm and analyze how this manifests itself and will manifest itself. This second and last part deals with the vision of MBS on many aspects of the Saudian society.

A Different Paradigm: Centrality of Power

To demystify Saudi Arabia and explain why it lagged behind in social and political transformation until allegedly Muhammad ben Salman revolutionised it, we need to admit that, in the past, society had been transformed in ways that were drastic, challenging and even dangerous at times. This all happened before the crown prince occupied the stage of power, monopolised the decision-making process, and shaped policies. Since 2015, processes of Saudi transformation have been directly linked to power and politics.

Power, Politics, and Rogue Liberalism

Muhammad ben Salman’s imposed changes are directly linked to securing the throne by abandoning the horizontal succession pattern, in which kingship moved from one brother to another among the eligible sons of Ibn Saud, the founder of the kingdom. Under the umbrella of King Salman, succession was swiftly moved to a vertical pattern in which kingship is monopolised by his son, Muhammad, and the latter’s sons.

Muhammad ben Salman is neither a traditionalist nor a modernist. He is an aspiring prince who happened to be chosen by his father to exclude all other contenders and emerge as the undisputed ruler of Saudi Arabia. To consolidate his power, he is compelled to present himself to the outside world as an ‘enlightened modernist’ who had domesticated the traditional forces in Saudi Arabia by deploying various means. From the co-optation of elites, detention of princes, religious scholars, and economic entrepreneurs, to appealing to the youth through the promise of employment, entertainment, and fun, he constructs himself as the ultimate modernist who replaces his old Nokia phone with a smart one.

Shrinking the Public Sphere

Co-optation alone may not be sufficient to consolidate the rule of the crown prince rule. Repression is perhaps more efficient in the short term. Since September 2017, he endeavoured to silence all domestic critical voices. He started with a pervasive detention campaign that incarcerated hundreds of intellectuals, economists, lawyers, writers and religious scholars. By November, several senior princes and members of the business elite found themselves in detention, albeit in the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh. [1]

Nobody knows whether there is an end to the detention storm that gripped the attention of Saudi Arabia, foreign governments, and the global investment community. Yet, it is certain that freedom of expression has now been even more curtailed than at previous historical eras. From controlling the press and punishing transgressing journalists to monopolising social media and criminalising critical opinions, Muhammad ben Salman has succeeded in emptying the public sphere from any critical opinions and debate. The Saudi public sphere has become so dull that no reflections on current policies are allowed.

Writing about domestic issues, and regional and international affairs in the local press must follow the official line. Supporting economic policies, social novelties and the entertainment industry is now a must. Critical opinions of Israel-previously allowed- are now taboo. [2]The war on Yemen is equally a taboo topic should a writer doubt its logic and results. Relations with the United States must be praised and the restoration of intimate connections with the Trump administration should be depicted as resulting from the shrewd thinking and diplomacy efforts of the crown prince.

The upheavals and repression since 2015 have indicated that the crown prince’s attempts to secure the throne pushed him to adopt a rogue and selective liberalism, mistakenly depicted as modernity. The leadership does not anticipate a revolution from above in which corruption, transparency, recourse to justice, and the rule of law are projects high on the crown prince’s agenda. His anti-corruption campaign proved to be a limited exercise, albeit theatrical and dramatic, serving the interests of the crown prince alone who is short of money to finance his megalomania economic projects and eliminate potential economic and military rivals from among his own cousins and the old economic elite.

The International Dimension

In the domestic struggle for power, the prince is also compelled to secure his throne internationally. [3] The global dimension of this struggle is extremely important to explain why he embarked on opening Saudi Arabia to outside cultural influences, allowing women certain limited freedoms and promising the youth new entertainment venues. Since the 9/11 attacks, the global community had exerted a lot of pressure on Saudi Arabia to alter its dark image as the bastion of conservatism and even the ideological incubator of terrorism.

Therefore, much of the prince’s so-called reforms are directed to the outside world, in particular Western governments and above all the United States. It is for this reason that lifting the ban on women driving was announced in Washington first. This leads us to conclude that securing the Saudi throne is not simply a domestic matter but is also a global concern; and any contender needs to endear a consortium of Western powers in order to guarantee his success and the durability of his rule.

Dealing with authoritarianism in the Arab world, the international community has always relied on repressive rulers who present themselves as the guardians of secular states against the tide of Sunni radicalism in its al-Qaida and Islamic State versions. With the demise of Husni Mubarak of Egypt and Zein al-Abdin bin Ali of Tunisia among others, new authoritarian leaders are emerging to fill the vacuum. Muhammad ben Salman and his partners in the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain and other less important leaders, are constantly vying to play the role of the guardians of the secular realm in Arab societies against the forces of radicalisation, darkness and terrorism.

Muhammad ben Salman aspires to become the ‘eliminator of radicalism’ not only among Sunni Muslims but also Shia Islamism, seen as spread by Iran to undermine security and peace in the Arab world. Therefore, his so-called ‘liberal reforms’ are destined to be seen as steps towards achieving this goal, thus emerging as the best cherished leader in Western capitals, from Washington to London.

The analysis of how the throne is secured and the requirements to secure it domestically and internationally allow us to focus attention on the mechanisms of Saudi power and politics that are currently unfolding rather than invoking a defunct model of modernity versus tradition. Power monopoly helps better explain the dynamics of transformation currently taking place in Saudi Arabia.

Conclusion

Like other societies, Saudi Arabia is neither an enigma nor a unique case of traditionalism resisting modernity. If there is anything unique about its history and present, it should be located in the way its politics is conducted by a minority of actors whose number is now decreasing in a dramatic way. Under the rule of Muhammad ben Salman, the country has become a “one-man show”. His policies are neither a function of consensus among royalty nor even consultation with key actors in Saudi society. His policies stem from his desire to consolidate his own power and emerge as the undisputed leader of a country with vast resources, although in the past such resources had been plundered and wasted.

The project to consolidate his power needs the implementation of a new superficial and rogue liberalism. This is currently being imposed on society and hailed as a great top-down transformation based on the thinking of a young determined and courageous reformer. The narrative depicts him as a modernist conducting social-engineering [4] in a very conservative and traditional society. I argued against such a defunct model and proposed another paradigm based on understanding the mechanism behind consolidating the throne domestically and seeking international recognition for it.

Madawi AL-RASHEED © AlJazeera Centre for Studies (Qatar)

Madawi Al-Rasheed is a visiting Professor at the Middle East Centre, London School of Economics and author of “Muted Modernists” (Hurst & OUP, 2015) and “Salman’s Legacy: the Dilemmas of a New Era in Saudi Arabia” (Hurst, 2018).